Not Your Sweetie

(#45) (No rating)

by Kilo Foxtrot on 02/16/2004 06:51:53 AM EST

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Good morning Stephanie (and the gang),
I honestly don't know what Clark will do. I think he'll be keeping an eye on Dean and Edwards after the Wisconsin primary, specifically Dean. I think part of Clark's strength is that he can offer Kerry some hardcore grassroots support in times of need; all Clark has to do is say the word and he knows we'll kick on the afterburner for him (and, by extension, Kerry) because it gives our man the political clout he needs to negotiate with. But that could become complicated if Dean folds after Wisconsin and decides to play ball with Kerry and the "establishment".
Dean's giving a lot of mixed signals right now. His high-level campaign gurus are bailing out - one in particular, Steven Grossman, Dean's campaign chairman, has signaled that he intends to join the Kerry campaign if Dean doesn't win in Wisconsin (presumably he'd like to start smoothing over the rough patches and bring Dean and his supporters onboard with Kerry if he can). Dean's supporters can mobilize a tremendous effort on Kerry's behalf too - if Dean asks them to. Whether Dean can turn the tide within his core support and effectively urge them to work through Kerry to change the party remains to be seen but my guess is he may have no other choice but to have a go at it. Then the game is about convincing Kerry that our camp is more compatible, which I believe Clark could fairly easily do behind the scenes, so we don't get left out. The whole point is to make sure that people who supported his bid have some voice in the race - to wrangle the most advantageous position for us as well as himself.
Of course, if Dean stalls too long after a disappointing showing in Wisconsin Edwards could whip out a monster monkey wrench and trump Dean's grassroots offering to Kerry by folding his own campaign and endorsing Kerry before Dean does. That would leave Dean to get the snot kicked out of him and completely without future leverage with the Democratic Party... This scenario with Edwards would be a lot harder for Clark to successfully negotiate. Kerry would basically be deciding which he'll need more in the GE, a strong grassroots effort to perry off attacks by the GOP or Edwards' slick political style. I think Kerry would probably view those things as roughly equal assets to his race. So then it comes down to chemistry and a decision about whether to take substance or style. Clark can still win this one because he had the foresight to cede to Kerry sooner than Edwards, because he has the infinitely more formidable temperament to challenge Cheney in debates and because he would clearly be the more powerful intellectual and philosophical addition to Kerry's team - but it'll take a lot more work.
If I were Clark, these are the things I'd be thinking about right now. I'd be keeping the lines of communication open, staying fairly available to Kerry and keeping a sharp eye on Dean and Edwards. I'm just guessing as to what Clark will do though, he is, after all, a heck of a lot smarter than I am.